Props
Player props, read the sharp way: role to usage to projection to the book's line to edge sizing. The books hang numbers off last season. We find the lines the field hasn't caught up to yet.
Week 6 NFL Props (Sunday)
Week 6 Monday Night Football Props
Week 7 CFB Props (Saturday night)
Player props for Saturday night, Oct. 17: Florida State at Miami and Notre Dame at BYU.
Week 5 Monday Night Football Props
Week 5 NFL Props (Sunday)
Week 6 CFB Props (Saturday)
Buccaneers at Cowboys: Which Thursday Night Props Hold Up?
Five plays, one Thursday night game, to give you the edge
Chris Olave Has Paid Every Time. Does Atlanta Keep Picking Up the Tab?
6 plays across 1 game to give you the edge
Gibbs has paid in every game he's finished healthy. Does Carolina stop that tonight?
16 plays across 9 games to give you the edge
Hoover's only come through once this year for prop bettors. Is today the day?
22 plays across 9 games to give you the edge
Week 4 CFB Props: The Slot Nobody's Betting, and Two Carries Markets the Book Just Moved
Three plays, all in the 3:30 p.m. ET window or later, re-checked live at 1:30 p.m. today because two of the three lines had already moved since this morning. One pick from this morning got cut because its game already kicked off. Informational only. Not betting advice.
Week 3 Props: Schultz's Catch Count, Ferguson's Role, and Warren's Widening Target Tree
Three tight-end role plays for Sunday, all reconfirmed live this afternoon: two of the three prices moved since this morning, and one number on our watch list from earlier today couldn't be found where we had it, so we're saying that instead of printing it anyway. Informational only. Not betting advice.
Week 2 Props: Mayer Gets the TE1 Role, and the Whole-Slate Read
One clean role-change lean up top, then a fast pass through all 14 Sunday games for where the injuries move a prop. Direction and reasoning; confirm the posted line before you act.
My Bets: A Real Record, Posted Win or Lose
I place a few small bets a week and post every one here, results and all. Two weeks in I'm 6-0, which on short-priced favorites means almost nothing yet. The point is the method and the honesty, not the streak.
Saturday CFB Props: The Chalk Board Goes to College
Every number here was pulled live from the sportsbooks on Saturday morning, September 19. Twenty-six props across eight games, one marquee in Jordan-Hare, and exactly zero figures we made up in a spreadsheet at 2 a.m. Informational only. Not betting advice.
The Book Is Slower Than the Snap Count
A prop line is priced on last season. A player's role changes by Tuesday.
The Number the Book Hung vs the Number the Role Supports
A framework for reading prop lines the way a sharp reads usage, with three worked example reads.