Week 6 NFL Props: Sunday's Card

Eight plays on Sunday's card, and the first one kicks off at 9:30 a.m. ET in London, which is a rough hour to be wrong about anything. The lines below come from named books, each with its price listed.

Nico Collins (WR, Texans): over 73.5 receiving yards

DraftKings -113

Collins has 75, 118, and 56 receiving yards in the three games he's played, for 249 yards and an 83.0 average. He missed Weeks 2 and 3. He practiced on a limited basis this week with no game-status designation, and Jacksonville has allowed 1,019 yards to wide receivers through five games, or 203.8 per game, the most in the NFL.

We believe a team that leaks that many receiving yards hands Collins the over before the London crowd finishes its tea.

Derrick Henry (RB, Ravens): over 91.5 rushing yards

DraftKings -113

Henry has rushed for 144, 68, 89, 73, and 102 yards, totaling 476 yards and a 95.2 average. He cleared this number in 2 of 5 games, and he isn't on the Week 6 injury report. Cleveland has allowed 117.4 rushing yards per game at 4.5 per carry.

The average sits above the line, but the median game doesn't, so this is a lean and not a lock. We believe the workload gets him there anyway.

Jonathan Taylor (RB, Colts): under 90.5 rushing yards

DraftKings -112

Taylor has rushed for 98, 92, 68, 95, and 45 yards for 398 yards and a 79.6 average, short of this line. He cleared 90.5 in 3 of 5 games. He was a full participant this week, and Tennessee has allowed 114.0 rushing yards per game at only 3.5 per carry, with no 20-yard runs.

The three overs came against Baltimore, Kansas City, and Washington, so we believe the market is pricing his best weeks. Under.

Drake London (WR, Falcons): over 89.5 receiving yards

FanDuel -113

London has posted 29, 51, 194, 96, and 118 receiving yards, totaling 488 yards and a 97.6 average. He cleared this number in 3 of 5 games. A hip issue showed up on the report with limited practice and no game-status designation. Chicago has allowed 801 yards to wide receivers, or 160.2 per game, and gives up 13.8 yards per reception, second highest in the league.

The 194 at Green Bay does a lot of the lifting in that average, so we believe the matchup is the better argument than the season line.

Kyren Williams (RB, Rams): over 69.5 rushing yards

DraftKings -109

Williams has rushed for 41, 85, 88, 80, and 49 yards, totaling 343 yards at 4.9 per carry and 68.6 per game. He cleared 69.5 in 3 of 5 games and isn't on the Week 6 injury report. Arizona has allowed 126.6 rushing yards per game, against a league average of 112.0, and 6 rushing touchdowns.

The number sits almost exactly on his average, so the Cardinals' run defense is the tiebreaker. We believe it tips toward the over.

Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders): over 81.5 receiving yards

DraftKings -112

Bowers has 116, 86, and 110 receiving yards in the three games he's played, for 312 yards and a 104.0 average after missing Weeks 1 and 2. He practiced fully this week and has no game-status designation. Buffalo has allowed 300 receiving yards to tight ends through five games, or 60.0 per game, ninth most in the league.

Three games is a small sample, but he cleared the line in every one of them. We believe the over holds.

Dak Prescott (QB, Cowboys): over 272.5 passing yards

FanDuel -114

Prescott has thrown for 175, 279, 276, 335, and 316 yards, totaling 1,381 yards and a 276.2 average. He cleared 272.5 in 4 of 5 games and isn't on the Week 6 injury report. Green Bay has allowed 997 passing yards through five games, or 199.4 per game, with 7 interceptions against 6 touchdowns.

This is the one where the defense and the player disagree. The Packers' number is far below Prescott's, but his own log has been far above 272.5 in four of five games, and we believe it holds up at Lambeau on Sunday night (8:20 p.m. ET).

Kenneth Walker III (RB, Chiefs): over 90.5 rushing yards

DraftKings -111

Walker has rushed for 173, 117, 70, and 177 yards, totaling 537 yards on 87 carries, at 6.2 per carry and 134.3 per game. Kansas City had a bye in Week 5. He cleared 90.5 in 3 of 4 games and isn't on the Week 6 injury report. The Chargers have allowed 118.6 rushing yards per game at 3.8 per carry, with 7 rushing touchdowns.

The line sits well under his average, and we believe the bye week only helps.

Quick reality check: This is not betting advice or a guarantee. Set a budget before you play and stick to it.

ZeroChalk is not affiliated with the NFL, NFL teams, or the NFLPA. Injury and role calls are best-guess reads from public practice and camp reporting, not inside information.