Week 5 NFL Props: Sunday's Card

Six plays, three games, and one of them kicks off before most of you have found your pants. The London game starts early enough for your bad decisions to ruin breakfast.

Bhayshul Tuten (RB, Jaguars): over 65.5 rushing yards

FanDuel -113 - checked Saturday night

Tuten's rushing log reads 66, 65, 73, and 73 yards, so he's paid on this number in 3 of 4 games. He handled 15, 13, 15, and 17 carries during that stretch. He wasn't on Friday's injury report, and Jacksonville plays Philadelphia in London at 9:30 AM ET on NFL Network.

We believe the workload gives him room to pay again, even if the London alarm clock feels like a personal attack.

Trevor Lawrence (QB, Jaguars): over 225.5 passing yards

FanDuel -113 - checked Saturday night

Lawrence has thrown for 245, 189, 182, and 227 yards, paying on this number in 2 of 4 games for Jacksonville. He hasn't reached 30 attempts this season, though he completed 18 of 23 passes in both games when he topped the line. Lawrence wasn't on Friday's injury report.

We believe 225.5 is reachable against Philadelphia, but backing an over on this volume may have your group chat circling before kickoff.

Will Shipley (RB, Eagles): under 37.5 rushing yards

FanDuel -114 - checked Saturday night

Shipley has rushed for 4, 24, 0, and 23 yards for Philadelphia, with a season high of 24. He's never had more than 9 touches in a game. Saquon Barkley is out with a hamstring injury and Tank Bigsby is on injured reserve, which leaves Shipley as the expected lead back against Jacksonville.

We believe 37.5 asks you to pay for a workload he hasn't had, and buying the promotion early is how you end up explaining dumb shit to the group chat.

D'Andre Swift (RB, Bears): over 82.5 rushing yards

FanDuel -114 - checked Saturday night

Swift has rushed for 124, 45, 84, and 58 yards, paying on this number in 2 of 4 games for Chicago. The 124 came on 18 carries against Carolina, while his season stands at 311 yards on 69 carries. Kyle Monangai is out, and Swift practiced fully Friday without an injury designation.

Swift fumbled for the second time this season against the Jets and didn't see the field again that day, but we believe Chicago will need him against Green Bay with Tyson Bagent starting at quarterback.

Luther Burden III (WR, Bears): over 46.5 receiving yards

FanDuel -114 - checked Saturday night

Burden has posted 63, 32, 61, and 63 receiving yards, paying on this number in 3 of 4 games for Chicago. Last week, with Tyson Bagent at quarterback, he turned 6 targets into 63 yards.

We expect the ball to keep finding him, which is a much better plan than getting cute and betting against the guy who's missed once.

Joe Burrow (QB, Bengals): under 255.5 passing yards

DraftKings -111 - checked Saturday night

Burrow has thrown for 254, 207, 282, and 428 yards, staying under this number in 2 of 4 games for Cincinnati. The 428 came against Jacksonville on 54 attempts, when he completed 39 passes with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are questionable against Miami, though both practiced fully Friday.

Even with the Dolphins sitting at 0-4, we believe this line asks Burrow to carry over the volume from a game that went completely off the rails.

Quick reality check: These are matchup reads, not betting advice or guarantees. Set a budget before you play and stick to it.

ZeroChalk is not affiliated with the NFL, NFL teams, or the NFLPA. Injury and role calls are best-guess reads from public practice and camp reporting, not inside information.